Just back from Vegas and doing some NBA betting. Using Sagarin's NBA Power ratings, specifically the Predictor column.
For example,
San Antonio Spurs: 96.08
Los Angeles Lakers: 96.36
Assume 3 pts for home team, LAL = 96+3 = 99. Take the integer part of Spurs rating and the difference is 3. LAL -3 is the predicted line.
Compare vs Book lines and if difference > 1 pt, then bet the game based on predicted line.
Best day was 4-1-1, Worse day was 50% where I would lose the vig, but otherwise this system worked well.
