NFL Predictor, Fantasy Football & Other interests

NBA Betting

2011-03-20T12:44:00.003-10:00

Just back from Vegas and doing some NBA betting. Using Sagarin's NBA Power ratings, specifically the Predictor column.

For example,

San Antonio Spurs: 96.08
Los Angeles Lakers: 96.36

Assume 3 pts for home team, LAL = 96+3 = 99. Take the integer part of Spurs rating and the difference is 3. LAL -3 is the predicted line.

Compare vs Book lines and if difference > 1 pt, then bet the game based on predicted line.

Best day was 4-1-1, Worse day was 50% where I would lose the vig, but otherwise this system worked well.

Week 10 Stat fix

2010-11-17T21:38:00.002-10:00

Thanks again to Jorge for finding another stat typo that has been fixed in the SF vs STL game this past weekend.

Reports have been updated and predictions fixed.

Good Luck!

Week 8 Final Update Posted

2010-10-31T01:25:00.001-10:00

Happy Halloween!

Good Luck!

Week 5 Final posted

2010-10-08T23:56:00.002-10:00

Sorry for the late post, but was on vacation for a few days.

Good Luck!

Week 3 Final update posted

2010-09-25T10:07:00.001-10:00

Good luck!

Stat fix Week 3

2010-09-21T17:35:00.002-10:00

A new site visitor noticed an error in my input stats and that has been fixed.

Will update lines as the week progresses.

Thanks!

Early week 3 update posted

2010-09-20T23:33:00.000-10:00

Early update posted.

Late update Week 2

2010-09-19T20:33:00.001-10:00

Sorry for the late update. I forgot to upload this stuff.

Week 2 Early Update posted

2010-09-14T18:14:00.002-10:00

Welcome to the 2010 season!

Week 2 update posted.

2010 Season coming!

2010-08-10T17:56:00.001-10:00

Watch this location for updates!

Wish I knew...

2010-03-02T08:47:00.002-10:00

I wish I knew about these colleges before I went to college... It definitely would have been cool to be in one of these undergraduate programs...

References:
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13846_3-10461947-62.html?part=rss&subj=news&tag=2547-1_3-0-20

Earthquake impact on (longterm) weather

2010-03-02T08:20:00.004-10:00

I thought this was an interesting article. I did not realize that earthquakes shift the mass of the Earth (albeit a tiny fraction), can affect the axis of rotation and even change the length of the day. They can also affect the polar location of the North Pole as well as the Earth's magnetic field.

I wonder if anyone is studying what impact these changes are having, if any, on worldwide weather patterns?

In recent months, there seems to have been more severe weather out there, especially the snow storms in the east, as well as rains and flooding in various areas. I wonder if we are starting to see some of the changes to worldwide weather patterns?

References:
http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2005/jan/HQ_05011_earthquake.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aLAUn4Gy92ss

2010 SB Predictions

2010-02-09T12:12:00.002-10:00

Of those below, I would bet money on GB at 12/1


Arizona Cardinals - 35/1
Atlanta Falcons - 30/1
Baltimore Ravens - 20/1
Buffalo Bills - 100/1
Carolina Panthers - 40/1
Chicago Bears - 35/1
Cincinnati Bengals - 30/1
Cleveland Browns - 100/1
Dallas Cowboys - 12/1
Denver Broncos - 50/1
Detroit Lions - 100/1
Green Bay Packers - 12/1
Houston Texans - 35/1
Indianapolis Colts - 13/2
Jacksonville Jaguars - 50/1
Kansas City Chiefs - 100/1
Miami Dolphins - 45/1
Minnesota Vikings - 12/1
New England Patriots - 10/1
New Orleans Saints - 10/1
New York Giants - 20/1
New York Jets - 25/1
Oakland Raiders - 100/1
Philadelphia Eagles - 16/1
Pittsburgh Steelers - 11/1
San Diego Chargers - 8/1
San Francisco 49ers - 45/1
Seattle Seahawks - 45/1
St.Louis Rams - 100/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 100/1
Tennessee Titans - 25/1
Washington Redskins - 50/1

End of Season

2010-02-07T22:31:00.002-10:00

Congrats to the NO Saints! Great season and happy for the City of New Orleans and State of Louisiana.

Error corrected Wk 4

2010-02-02T23:31:00.001-10:00

Error corrected in week 4 NYJ at NO game. NYJ passing was recorded as 1112, corrected to 112.

Subsequent weeks projections/predictions updated. Records updated to reflect correction.

Space Aliens?

2010-02-02T15:09:00.000-10:00

This counts as "Other interests"... so what do you think?

http://gizmodo.com/5462539/hubble-detects-mysterious-spaceship+shaped-object-traveling-at-11000mph

AFC/NFC Championships updates posted

2010-01-17T23:24:00.000-10:00

Good Luck!

Week 15 Updates Posted

2009-12-16T23:08:00.001-10:00

Week 15 updates posted.

Good Luck!

Week 13 Monday Night

2009-12-07T15:14:00.001-10:00

Just for fun, I think BAL +3 is the side to be on tonight...

From book National Football Lottery

2009-12-07T14:26:00.002-10:00

Excerpts from the book National Football Lottery by Larry Merchant...

Pro Football Betting Generalizations:

Don't try to make money betting on a bad team.
Don't give more than 7 points.
Don't bet the underdog unless you think it can win the game.
Bet a clearly superior team any time it is favored by less than a touchdown.
Bet the team you like regardless of injuries, home field, etc. Those factors have already been included in the line.
Don't bet games in which the weather is likely to be a factor. You're guessing.
Bet convictions, not hunches. When in doubt, pass the game up.
Bet with your emotions, but don't be carried away.

Generalizations about bookies, betting and the points:

Don't be intimidated by the line. If you think a favorite isn't favored by enough or an underdog is underdogged by too much, bet it. The line is fallible.
Bet on the public (popular) teams early in the week, bet against them as late as possible.

Week 12 Early Update posted

2009-11-23T22:32:00.001-10:00

Week 12 early update.

Good Luck!

Early Week 11 Update

2009-11-16T22:51:00.000-10:00

Week 11 update posted.

Good Luck!

Final Update Week 10

2009-11-11T09:45:00.003-10:00

Final updates posted. Happy Veteran's Day!

Thank you, Veterans, for your sacrifice and service to the U.S. of A.

Good Luck!

Week 9 early update posted

2009-11-02T22:24:00.002-10:00

Week 9 update posted.

Good Luck!

Week 8 Final posted

2009-10-30T17:24:00.000-10:00

Week 8 final updates posted.

Good Luck!

Early week 8 posted

2009-10-26T22:31:00.002-10:00

Week 8 update posted.

The way it's going this season, might be better to go against my computer predictions... :-)

Good Luck!

Week 6 Early Update posted

2009-10-12T21:17:00.001-10:00

Early lines update posted.

Fantasy football projections also posted:
http://home.roadrunner.com/~predictor/proj.txt

Week 5 Final Posted

2009-10-11T07:46:00.004-10:00

Sorry, it's late, but week 5 final posted.

Good rushing matchups: (6 of 15)

MIN
DAL (+)
KC
PHI
TB
OAK
NYG (+)
CLE (+)
BUF (+)
BAL
PIT
SF (+)
ARI
JAX
MIA (+)

Good passing matchups (13 of 19)

MIN (+)
DAL (+)
KC (+)
PHI (+)
NYG (+)
BUF
CIN (+)
BAL
PIT (+)
DET (+)
ATL (+)
SF
HOU (+)
ARI (+)
JAX
SEA (+)
IND (+)
TEN
NYJ

Updated 10/12/2009: team yardage:

(+) = greater than 99 yds rush or 199 yds passing

Good Luck!

Week 5 Updates Posted

2009-10-05T22:00:00.002-10:00

Kind of a bad start this season, but still a lot more games to go. Hopefully, things will turnaround.

FFL team projections posted at:
http://home.roadrunner.com/~predictor/proj.txt

Good Luck!

Week 4 Final Posted

2009-10-03T00:41:00.006-10:00

Week 4 final updates posted.

Don't forget to review http://home.roadrunner.com/~predictor/proj.txt for help with your fantasy lineups.

Good Rushing Matchups

Raiders vs Texans (x)
Texans vs Raiders (+)
Bengals vs Browns (+)
Chiefs vs Giants (x)
Giants vs Chiefs (+)
Bucs vs Redskins (+)
Redskins vs Bucs (+)
Dolphins vs Bills (+)
Broncos vs Cowboys (+)
Steelers vs Chargers (+)
Vikings vs Packers (x)

Good Passing Matchups

Texans vs Raiders (+)
Titans vs Jags (+)
Jags vs Titans (+)
Patriots vs Ravens (+)
Bengals vs Browns (+)
Giants vs Chiefs (+)
Bears vs Lions (x)
Redskins vs Bucs (x)
Jets vs Saints (x)
Bills vs Dolphins (x)
Dolphins vs Bills (x)
Rams vs 49ers (x)
49ers vs Rams (x)
Broncos vs Cowboys (+)
Chargers vs Steelers (+)

Updated 10/5/2009: team yardage:

(x) = less than 100 yds rush or 200 yds passing
(+) = greater than 99 yds rush or 199 yds passing

Good Luck!

Week 3 Updates posted

2009-09-21T20:10:00.002-10:00

Early week 3 updates posted.

Check out the stat projects for the upcoming week for use in your fantasy football leagues!
http://home.roadrunner.com/~predictor/proj.txt

Week 2 Updates posted.

2009-09-14T22:45:00.002-10:00

Wow! What a fun week 1 in the NFL this past weekend.

Well, early week 2 updates have been posted.

NFL Predictor updates will start after week 1

2009-09-03T10:11:00.001-10:00

Just a FYI, but prediction updates will be posted after week 1.

Thanks!

Fantasy Football mags are out!

2009-06-29T08:47:00.002-10:00

West Wing quote

2009-05-15T07:05:00.002-10:00

"Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has." - Margaret Mead

2009 NFL Free Agent Signings List

2009-04-16T16:40:00.002-10:00

By The Associated Press
Thursday, April 16, 2009 8:13 PM

-- ARIZONA CARDINALS_Signed Anthony Becht, TE; Mike Leach, LS; Rodney Leisle, DT; Keith Lewis, S; Bryant McFadden, CB; and Donovan Raiola, C. Re-signed Ben Graham, P; Clark Haggans, LB; Brian St. Pierre, QB; Kurt Warner, QB; and Dan Kreider, FB. Agreed to terms with Bertrand Berry, DE; Elton Brown, OL; Ralph Brown, CB; and Jason Wright, RB.

ATLANTA FALCONS_Signed Mike Peterson, LB; and C Brett Romberg. Re-signed Chauncey Davis, DE; Jamal Fudge, S; Tony Gilbert, LB; Jason Jefferson, DT; Justin Peele, TE; Ben Wilkerson, OL; and Coy Wire, LB.
BALTIMORE RAVENS_Signed Chris Carr, CB/KR; Domonique Foxworth, CB; and L.J. Smith, TE. Agreed to terms with Matt Birk, C; and Ray Lewis, LB. Re-signed Samari Rolle, CB.

BUFFALO BILLS_Signed Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB; Drayton Florence, CB; Geoff Hangartner, OL; and Terrell Owens, WR. Re-signed Kirk Chambers, OL; and Corey McIntyre, FB. Agreed to terms with Pat Thomas, LB.

CAROLINA PANTHERS_Re-signed Jordan Gross, OT.

CHICAGO BEARS_Signed Josh Bullocks, S; Glenn Earl, S; Marcus Hamilton, DB; and Frank Omiyale, OL. Agreed to terms with Kevin Jones, RB; Kevin Shaffer, OT; and Orlando Pace, OT.

CINCINNATI BENGALS_Signed Laveranues Coles, WR; and J.T. O'Sullivan, QB. Re-signed Cedric Benson, RB; Darryl Blackstock, LB; Chris Crocker, S; DeDe Dorsey, WR; and Jamar Fletcher, CB. Agreed to terms with Tank Johnson, DT, and Brandon Johnson, LB.

CLEVELAND BROWNS_Signed Eric Barton, LB; David Bowens, LB; Noah Herron, RB; Corey Ivy, CB; C.J. Mosley, DT; David Patten, WR; Hank Poteat, CB; Robert Royal, TE; John St. Clair, OL; and Floyd Womack, T. Re-signed Mike Adams, S.

DALLAS COWBOYS_Signed Keith Brooking, LB; Igor Olshansky, DE; Gerald Sensabaugh, S; and Matt Stewart, LB. Re-signed Cory Procter, G; and Stephen Bowen, DE.

DENVER BRONCOS_Signed J.J. Arrington, RB; Correll Buckhalter, RB; Andra Davis, LB; Brian Dawkins, S; Ronald Fields, DT; Jabar Gaffney, WR; Andre' Goodman, CB; Renaldo Hill, S; LaMont Jordan, RB; J'Vonne Parker, DT; Lonie Paxton, FS; Kenny Peterson, DL; Darrell Reid, DT; and Scott Young, OL. Re-signed Jeb Putzier, TE. Agreed to terms with Chris Simms, QB.

DETROIT LIONS_Signed Terrelle Smith, FB; Ronald Curry, WR; Phillip Buchanon, CB; Grady Jackson, DT; Bryant Johnson, WR; Eric King, CB; Maurice Morris, RB; Will Heller, TE; and Cody Spencer, LB. Agreed to terms with Daniel Loper, OL. Re-signed Aveion Cason, RB; Damion Cook, OL; Jason Hanson, K; and Stephen Peterman, G.

GREEN BAY PACKERS_Signed Duke Preston, OL; and Anthony Smith, S. Agreed to terms with Mike Montgomery, DE. Re-signed Tory Humphrey, TE.

HOUSTON TEXANS_Signed LB Buster Davis; LB Cato June; Shaun Cody, DT; Darrell McClover, LB; Dan Orlovsky, QB; and Antonio Smith, DE. Re-signed Joel Dreessen, TE; Nick Ferguson, S; Chris White, C; Eugene Wilson, S; and Rashad Butler, T.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS_Signed Adam Seward, LB. Re-signed Lance Ball, RB; Kelvin Hayden, CB; Jeff Saturday, C; Tyjuan Hagler, LB, Dan Federkeil, OL.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS_Signed Sean Considine, S; and Tra Thomas, T. Re-signed Brad Meester, C; Scott Starks, CB; and Joe Zelenka, LS.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS_ Signed Zach Thomas, LB; Monte Beisel, LB; Bobby Engram, WR; Mike Goff, G; Terrance Copper, WR; LS Tanner Purdum; and Rodney Wright, WR. Agreed to terms with Travis Daniels, CB; C.J. Jones, WR; Corey Mays, LB; Jon McGraw, S; and Darrell Robertson, LB.

MIAMI DOLPHINS_Signed Joe Berger, G; Eric Green, CB; and Jake Grove, C. Re-signed Yeremiah Bell, S; Vernon Carey, OT; and Channing Crowder, LB.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS_Re-signed Heath Farwell, LB; Jimmy Kennedy, DT; Jim Kleinsasser, TE; Benny Sapp, CB; Otis Grigsby, DL; and Fred Evans, DT. Signed Cedric Griffin, CB; Glenn Holt, WR; and Karl Paymah, CB.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS_Signed Chris Baker, TE; Leigh Bodden, CB; Joey Galloway, WR; Nathan Hodel, LS; Al Johnson, C; Shawn Springs, CB; and Fred Taylor, RB. Re-signed Matt Cassel, QB (f), and traded him to Kansas City; re-signed Eric Alexander, LB; Wesley Britt, OL; Chris Hanson, P; Russ Hochstein, OL; James Sanders, S; Ray Ventrone, S; Mike Wright, DL; and Tank Williams, S.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS_Signed Darnell Dinkins, TE; Heath Evans, FB; Jabari Greer, CB; Nick Leckey, C; Pierson Prioleau, S; Paul Spicer, DL; Rod Coleman, DT; Darren Sharper, S; and Dan Campbell, TE. Re-signed Joey Harrington, QB; Devery Henderson, WR; Courtney Roby, WR-KR; Jon Stinchcomb, T; Jonathan Vilma, LB; and Troy Evans, LB.

NEW YORK GIANTS_Signed Rocky Bernard, DT; Michael Boley, LB; C.C. Brown, S; Chris Canty, DE; and Lee Vickers, TE. Re-signed David Carr, QB; and Brandon Jacobs, RB (f). Agreed to terms with Kevin Dockery, CB.

NEW YORK JETS_Signed Marques Douglas, DE; Howard Green, DT; Larry Izzo, LB; Jim Leonhard, S; Bart Scott, LB; and Donald Strickland, CB. Re-signed Ahmad Carroll, DB; Jay Feely, K; Brandon Moore, G; and Tony Richardson, FB.

OAKLAND RAIDERS_Signed Jeff Garcia, QB; Khalif Barnes, T. Re-signed Nnamdi Asomugha, DB; Cooper Carlisle, G; Isaiah Ekejiuba, LB; Shane Lechler, P; and Justin Miller, CB.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES_Signed Stacy Andrews, OT; Rashad Baker, S; and Sean Jones, S. Re-signed Tank Daniels, LB; Joselio Hanson, CB; and Nick Cole, OL. Agreed to terms with Leonard Weaver, FB.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS_Re-signed Charlie Batch, QB; Keyaron Fox, LB; Willie Colon, T; Chris Kemoeatu, G; Max Starks, T (f); Andre Frazier, LB; Trai Essex, T; Fernando Bryant, CB; and Arnold Harrison, LB.

ST. LOUIS RAMS_Signed Kyle Boller, QB; Jason Brown, OL; James Butler, S; and FB Mike Karney. Re-signed Ron Bartell, CB; and Mark Setterstrom, G.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS_Agreed to terms with Kevin Burnett, LB. Re-signed Kynan Forney, G.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS_Signed Demetric Evans, DE; Damon Huard, QB; and Brandon Jones, WR; and ; Marvel Smith, T. Re-signed Moran Norris, FB; Allen Rossum, CB-KR; and Takeo Spikes, LB.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS_Signed Colin Cole, DT; T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR; and John Owens, TE. Re-signed Ray Willis, OL. Agreed to terms with D.D. Lewis, LB.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS_Signed Byron Leftwich, QB; Angelo Crowell, LB; Mike Nugent, K; and Derrick Ward, RB. Re-signed Michael Clayton, WR; Cortez Hankton, WR; Luke McCown, QB; Jermaine Phillips, S; and Jerramy Stevens, TE.

TENNESSEE TITANS_Signed Jovan Haye, DT; Mark Jones, WR/KR; Patrick Ramsey, QB; and Nate Washington, WR. Re-signed Rob Bironas, K; Kerry Collins, QB; Vincent Fuller, DB; Justin McCareins, WR. Agreed to terms with Craig Hentrich, P.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS_Signed Derrick Dockery, G; Dominique Dorsey, KR; Albert Haynesworth, DT; Dirk Johnson, P; Dave Rayner, K; and Renaldo Wynn, DE. Re-signed Ethan Albright, LS; Phillip Daniels, DE; Reed Doughty, S; Alfred Fincher, LB; DeAngelo Hall, CB; and Shaun Suisham, K.
___
f-franchise player

Albert Einstein quote

2009-02-03T10:10:00.001-10:00

Only those who attempt the absurd will achieve the impossible.
- Albert Einstein

SB: PIT -6.5 vs ARI

2009-01-18T23:00:00.003-10:00

Congrats to the Cards and the Steelers for making it to the Super Bowl.

Early SB game update posted.

Cards jumped out early to a big lead in their game vs PHI only to fall behind, then come back, go ahead and hold on to win the game. This seems like a common MO for the Cards.

Steelers made enough plays (and missed some big ones) to move the ball and score some points in the first half. The defense shutdown Flacco and the BAL offense, but the injury to Ward hurt the Steelers passing game and offense. In the end, the PIT defense, made the plays, kept the pressure on Flacco and came up with the final score to put the game away.

As far as an early prediction, I think the Steelers will win a close one. The Cards will jump out early to a lead, but the Steelers will run the ball and play defense to come back and go ahead. However, in the end, the Cards will try to fight back, but will fall short against the #1 defense in the league and the Steelers will hold on for the SB win.

Good Luck!

End of Analog TV in Hawaii

2009-01-14T13:42:00.002-10:00

Tomorrow the nation gets preview of what'll happen when analog broadcasting gets switched off and Hawaii is "converted" to the first digital only state at 12:01pm HST.

Wish us luck!

NFL Playoffs Early Update Posted

2009-01-12T08:37:00.003-10:00

Early updates posted for Divisional playoffs round.

PHI @ ARI - should be a good game. Both are playing well at this time. ARI plays well at home and PHI seems to be peaking, but I kind of like ARI in what should be a close game. PHI has not faced a passing offense like this and the ARI running game has found a gear/mixture that seems to be working for them.

BAL @ PIT - should be slugfest game. It was surprising to see Big Ben chucking it downfield when PIT was ahead, but SD didn't have much of a chance in that game. Both defenses should rise up for this one and turnovers will probably be the difference. I like PIT with Big Ben and a healthy Willie Parker vs the rookie Flacco and his banged up RBs.

Good Luck!

Early NFL updates posted

2009-01-05T13:32:00.003-10:00

Early NFL Predictor site updates have been posted.

Looks like all the home teams are predicted to win their games this week. ATS is a different story as the road teams should cover based on early predictions.

BAL at TEN: should be a low scoring slugfest. I think turnovers will determine the winner, but I like BAL, though TEN has the extra rest and gameplanning time...

SD at PIT: not sure if SD can repeat their efforts against a solid, well rested PIT defense. I can't see SD winning this game.

ARI at CAR: should be most entertaining offensive game of the weekend. ARI doesn't play as well on the road so I expect CAR to be able to run the ball and playaction it's way to a win.

PHI at NYG: the road team has won in the previous two games this season so I guess PHI has a chance. I can see either team winning. This game is too close to call...

Good Luck!

Win a ticket to the Presidential Inauguration?

2009-01-02T07:16:00.002-10:00

Includes flight and hotel... Due midnight 8 Jan 2009.

Answer this: What does this inauguration mean to you?

http://www.pic2009.org/page/s/tickettohistory

Good Luck!

Happy New Years!

2008-12-31T08:28:00.007-10:00

Hope everyone has a SAFE and Happy New Years tonight and tomorrow!

Playoffs updates have been posted.

Good Luck!

Week 16 Final posted

2008-12-19T10:38:00.001-10:00

Week 16 updates have been posted.

Good Luck!

Predictor Website moved!

2008-12-09T21:50:00.001-10:00

The primary prediction website has been moved. The host (roadrunner) has decided to consolidate it's sites to a single domain. The new URL is: http://home.roadrunner.com/~predictor

Hopefully this does not cause too much problems for everyone.

Week 15 Early Updated Posted

2008-12-08T23:55:00.000-10:00

Week 15 update posted.

Good Luck!

World Blogger Championship of Online Poker!

2008-12-08T13:30:00.002-10:00

Week 14 Updates

2008-11-30T22:33:00.003-10:00

Week 14 updates will be finished earlier than usual. I will be in Vegas next week and won't have access to a PC to make updates.

Early updates have been posted.

Good Luck!

Week 13 Final Posted

2008-11-27T10:33:00.000-10:00

Week 13 final update has been posted.

Happy Thanksgivings!

Week 12 Update

2008-11-23T21:42:00.001-10:00

Top 5 Computers picks:
SF + 10.5 (L)
DET + 8.5 (L)
OAK + 9.5 (W)
SEA + 3.5 (W)
MIA -1.5 (L)

PIT, TB, and WAS all won their cames, but CAR did not.

ATS:
PIT - 10.5 (W)
TB - 8.5 (W)
CAR + 1 (L)
WAS -3.5 (L)

Week 12 Final Posted

2008-11-18T22:44:00.002-10:00

Final updates posted.

Top 5 Computer picks:
SF + 10.5
DET + 8.5
OAK + 9.5
SEA + 3.5
MIA -1.5

PIT, TB, CAR, and WAS should win their games.

ATS go with:
PIT - 10.5
TB - 8.5
CAR + 1
WAS -3.5

Good Luck!

Week 12 Early Update Posted

2008-11-17T22:08:00.002-10:00

Early week 12 updates have been posted.

Top 5 computer picks went 3-2 last week.
WAS + 1.5 (L)
KC + 5.5 (L)
NYJ + 3 (W)
SD + 5.5 (W)
CIN + 9 (W)

My own picks went 2-3 ATS
MIA -10.5 (L)
TEN -3 (W)
ARI -3 (W)
PIT -5.5 (L)
WAS +1.5 (L)

Straight up: MIA (W), TEN (W), PHI (T), CAR (W), ARI (W), PIT (W) and WAS (L) for 5-1-1.

Week 11 Final Update Posted

2008-11-12T17:28:00.001-10:00

Final line updates posted.

Top 5 computer picks:
was + 1.5
KC + 5.5
NYJ +3
SD + 5.5
CIN + 9

My own picks:
MIA, TEN, PHI, CAR, ARI, PIT, and WAS should all win their games. ATS, I would have to go with:
MIA -10.5
TEN -3
ARI -3
PIT - 5.5
WAS + 1.5

Good Luck!

Week 11 Posted

2008-11-11T18:40:00.001-10:00

Week 11 has been posted.

Top 5 Computer picks
DET + 6.5 (L)
OAK +9.5 (L)
KC + 15.5 (W)
sf +9.5 (W)
CHI + 3 (L)
-----------------------
2-3

Week 10 Update

2008-11-03T22:54:00.001-10:00

Week 10 has been posted.

Good Luck!

Top 5 computer picks:
CIN + 7.5 (W)
SEA + 7 (L)
KC + 8.5 (W)
NYJ + 5.5 (W)
MIA +3 (W)
----------------
4-1-0

Week 9 Update Posted

2008-10-28T22:32:00.000-10:00

Updates posted.

Good Luck!

Week 8 Final Posted

2008-10-23T23:01:00.003-10:00

Week 8 final updates posted.

I made a couple of changes to the PROJ.TXT file output. Three of the last four columns were changed to compare the offensive vs def numbers on the same line for easier analysis.

For example...


                        Oppt            Oppt               Oppt              Oppt
                 Rsh    RshA     Pss    PssA      Rush     RshA     Pass     PssA       Proj
                 100(%)/100(%)   200(%)/200(%)    TD(/Gm)/ TD(/Gm)  TD(/Gm)/ TD(/Gm)   Score
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chargers     :   3( 43)/ 4( 57)  4( 57)/ 5( 71)    4(0.6)/  4(0.6)  16(2.3)/  9(1.3)     27
Saints       :   4( 57)/ 5( 71)  6( 86)/ 6( 86)    7(1.0)/  4(0.6)  12(1.7)/ 11(1.6)     24
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now it's easier see that the Chargers have rushed for > 100 yds in 3 games (43%) vs the Saints def. have allowed > 100 yds rushing in 4 games (57%). Similarly for the other stats, you can see that both teams should be able to score passing TDs, but may have a harder time scoring via the run.

Hope that helps... Good Luck!

Week 8 Posted

2008-10-21T23:26:00.001-10:00

Initial updates for week 8 have been posted...

Good Luck!

Week 7 Posted

2008-10-15T06:56:00.001-10:00

Week 7 updates have been posted. Found an error in the Browns-Redskins game matchup that I'll fix tonight.

Good Luck!

NFL Predictor Week 6 Posted

2008-10-08T20:06:00.000-10:00

Sorry so late, but week 6 updates have been posted.

Good luck!

Current RAFFLE roster

2008-10-03T17:19:00.006-10:00

Well, the team is 2-2, which is not bad considering the injuries. Need to find a backup QB and depth at WR and RB for the coming weeks, but for now it's ok.

Favre, Brett NYJ QB
Frerotte, Gus MIN QB
Graham, Earnest TBB RB
Lewis, Jamal CLE RB
McClain, Le'Ron BAL RB
Morris, Maurice SEA RB
Taylor, Fred JAC RB
Young, Selvin DEN RB
Berrian, Bernard MIN WR
Bryant, Antonio TBB WR
Colston, Marques NOS WR
Jackson, Vincent SDC WR
Johnson, Bryant SFO WR
Moore, Lance NOS WR
Owens, Terrell DAL WR
Winslow, Kellen CLE TE
Folk, Nick DAL PK
Giants, New York NYG Def

I'll post the week 5 update later tonight.

Week 4

2008-09-27T08:42:00.001-10:00

Final update has been posted.

Good Luck!

Week 3 Update posted

2008-09-24T09:22:00.004-10:00

Week 3 update has been posted.

Just got back from Vacation and it's been awhile since I've been to Disneyland, but Wow, tickets have gotten expensive... $94 for an adult 1-day hopper!?!

UH at Oregon St -12

2008-09-09T10:05:00.003-10:00

With QB Granke back at the helm, I feel better about Hawaii's chances this weekend at Oregon State.

OSU may have found themselves a RB in Quizz Rodgers so UH will need to contain him. This could be a problem if OSU continues to pass for 300+ yds per game... Hopefully, UH's improved D will be up for the challenge.

UH will need to ride the arm of QB Granke and the UH defense this week on the road. New receivers are starting to emerge with Washington, Bain, Salas, and Lane. RB Jayson Rego is another option to keep opposing defenses honest with the run...

Good Luck Warriors!

Week 2 Update Posted

2008-09-08T21:44:00.004-10:00

Week 2 update has been posted. Several games are off the board, but should be updated later this week.

Summary Predictions as well as detailed predictions are available.

Stat projections for teams are also available for you fantasy football guys...

Predictor Updates in Week 2

2008-09-07T22:58:00.000-10:00

Predictor updates will be posted starting in Week 2.

Good Luck and Thanks for visiting!

RAFFLE team

2008-08-29T15:18:00.000-10:00

Here is my fantasy team for this year...

QB David Garrard JAX
QB Brett Favre NYJ
RB Jamal Lewis CLE
RB Earnest Graham TB
RB Selvin Young DEN
RB Fred Taylor JAX
RB Maurice Morris SEA
RB Kevin Jones CHI
WR Terrell Owens DAL
WR Marques Colston NO
WR Bernard Berrian MIN
WR Vincent Jackson SD
WR Mark Clayton BAL
WR Muhsin Muhammad CAR
TE Kellen Winslow JR CLE
PK Nick Folk DAL
DEF NY Giants

The league is a keeper league and you can keep up to 8 players from last year.

Hopefully my QBs have a decent year and my RBs come through...

UH at UF -35

2008-08-29T15:16:00.001-10:00

Phew... it's finally here! The start of the new UH and NFL football seasons...

I'll be updating the NFL Predictor site starting after the first week of NFL games.

Good Luck to UH in Gainesville tomorrow!

Nice Davone Bess Q&A

2008-08-20T20:38:00.003-10:00

There is a good Q&A at the source below. Sounds like Bess is working hard and trying to always improve every practice...

Source: South Florida Sun-Sentinel.com

Good Luck and Keep up the Hard Work!!!

Another good game by Colt

2008-08-16T18:01:00.002-10:00

Colt was 4 of 5 for 79 yds and the go ahead/winning TD today.

Davone Bess had just 2 for 12 and 0 TDs and two penalties from what I've read...

Keep working hard boys!

Bess continues to impress!

2008-08-14T06:33:00.001-10:00

"Undrafted rookie Davone Bess continues to impress with his route-running and pass-catching abilities."
Source: Palm Beach Post

Davone Bess starting in the slot!

2008-08-12T06:59:00.002-10:00

Looks like Davone Bess is making a move...

"WR Ernest Wilford, who was initially signed this offseason to be a starter, keeps falling down the depth chart. Last week Derek Hagan unseated him for a starting spot. This week it appears undrafted rookie receiver Davone Bess wrestled away the slot receiver role."
Source: South Florida Sun-Sentinel

Keep it up!

Colt's 2nd pre-season game

2008-08-09T18:38:00.003-10:00

An OK outing... just 4-8 for 37 yds, 0 INT, 0 TDs again in the 3rd quarter...

Keep your head up and continue working!

Davone Bess listed on 3rd at WR2 position

2008-08-04T09:19:00.002-10:00

He's listed at the WR2 position (source):

WR 2: Ernest Wilford, Greg Camarillo, Davone Bess, John Dunlap, Selwyn Lymon.

Good Luck!

Congrats Colt!

2008-08-03T23:03:00.007-10:00

Congrats on the great debut!

He looked good out there, slinging the ball around, moving those chains and leading two nice TD drives. The way he moved around the pocket, finding lanes to throw and then throwing accurately was really good to see.

Colt threw a nice over the shoulder pass to a WR on the left for a long gainer and another nice one to a WR on the right for his first TD on his first drive. On his 2nd drive, he improvised on a scramble to the right for a 5 yd TD pass to a RB. He went 9-10 for 123 yds and 2 TDs.

John Madden had some good words to say about Colt and how he brings a certain energy/excitement with him when he's in the game as well as praises for the "perfect" passes he was throwing.

Keep on having fun and continued success!

Colt will play!

2008-08-01T12:46:00.001-10:00

The Washington Post reports Redskins QB Jason Campbell is expected to start the Hall of Fame Game against the Colts and give way to backup QB Todd Collins after the first or second series. Collins will finish the first half. Sixth-round draft pick QB Colt Brennan will start the second half.

Good Luck!

Renewed FootballGuys subscription

2008-07-30T13:11:00.001-10:00

Well, renewed my FootballGuys subscription. It's probably a better and cheaper option than buying FFL magazines before the season starts. This way I get up to date information, projections and tools for the FF leagues I play.

To recap last season, I think I finished the regular season of RAFFLE as the 2nd highest scoring team and tied with the best record overall (11- 2/0-3 playoffs). I sucked in the playoffs again...

Tribute to "The Last Lecture"

2008-07-25T13:33:00.000-10:00

Memorable quotes:

"The brick walls are there for a reason. The brick walls are not there to keep us out; the brick walls are there to give us a chance to show how badly we want something. The brick walls are there to stop the people who don't want it badly enough. They are there to stop the other people!"
"...when you see yourself doing something badly and nobody's bothering you to tell you anymore, that's a very bad place to be. Your critics are the ones telling you they still love you and care."
"Experience is what you get when you didn't get what you wanted."
"It's not about how to achieve your dreams; it's about how to lead your life. If you lead your life the right way, the dreams will come to you."
"[Quoting a CMU secretary] This advice is good for the ladies: when it comes to men that are romantically interested in you, it's really simple: just don't listen to anything they have to say; pay attention to what they do"

Randy Pausch passes...

2008-07-25T13:31:00.001-10:00

Randy Pausch, the professor at Carnegie Mellon University who inspired countless students in the classroom and others worldwide through his highly acclaimed "Last Lecture", has died of complications from pancreatic cancer. He was 47. Read more...

Rocket man!

2008-07-16T10:10:00.002-10:00

I saw this picture in the local paper a few months ago and was AMAZED. If it was April 1, I would have thought it was a joke, but after a double-take and reading the article, I sometimes still can't believe it's true!

Truely amazing... :-)

Colts signs contract

2008-07-16T10:06:00.000-10:00

Good to hear that Colt got signed by Washington to a 4 yr $1.8M contract. Sounds like he's pretty much recovered from his hip surgery and he can really get down to the business becoming a NFL quarterback.

Good Luck Colt!

Quote of the Day

2008-07-03T22:53:00.002-10:00

"Programming today is a race between software engineers striving to build bigger and better idiot-proof programs, and the Universe trying to produce bigger and better idiots. So far, the Universe is winning."
- Rick Cook, The Wizardry Compiled

Take Cover!

2008-06-20T11:30:00.004-10:00

Thought this was pretty funny when I saw it...

Colt drafted in the 6th Round by Redskins!

2008-05-07T22:13:00.004-10:00

Well, Colt was drafted and I hope he uses all the doubters as motivation to help him make at the next level. I think he can. If he can stay healthy and trust his reads and abilities, he'll be ok.

Good Luck Colt and the rest of the Warrior in the their respective camps! Show'em what you can do!

Good Luck Colt!

2008-04-16T20:40:00.002-10:00

Just wanted to wish Colt Brennan the best in the NFL Draft and hope that he goes HIGH!

Good luck to the WRs and all the other UH "alumni"... :-)

Giants Win! Giants Win!

2008-02-03T21:19:00.000-10:00

Wow, what a game!

Defensively the Giants played a hell of a game. They pressured and hit Brady, covered the receivers and kept the Patriots in bad field position for most of the game.

Offensively, MVP?!? Eli Manning. Who would have thunk it! They ran the ball just enough to balance the offense and Manning played a great game making throws for key 3rd downs. He needs to protect the ball better when he's scrambling out of the pocket instead of swinging it around in one hand... This had me worried the whole game...

The last drive was a classic. His ability to somehow break away from that sack and toss up the prayer that was answered by WR Tyree's one hand catch with the top of his helmet?!?

Congratulations Giants!

Super Bowl: New York Giants vs New England Patriots

2008-01-25T09:34:00.000-10:00

In my opinion, it'll be a NE blowout or a close game. I can't see the NYG blowing out NE.

If NYG can control the ball on offense with the run, throw some well-timed passes and NOT turn the ball over, they could win a close game.
If NE can shutdown the NYG rushing game and get some turnovers, they could win easy.

Based on the stats, my SB prediction is New England 29-11 for the perfect, undefeated season.

Good Luck!

Super Bowl update posted

2008-01-23T21:40:00.000-10:00

Early Super Bowl updates have been posted.

Good Luck!

AFC/NFC Championship Games Final Update

2008-01-18T23:37:00.000-10:00

Final updates posted.

Good Luck!

Early update AFC/NFC Championship games

2008-01-13T19:52:00.000-10:00

Wow, looks the NE Patriots will have the opportunity to play for the perfect season and Super Bowl having to just get through the beatup SD Chargers.

Can Eli Manning put together another solid game vs the GB Packers? Wow.

Good Luck!

UG 41-10 over UH

2008-01-02T09:19:00.000-10:00

Congrats to Hawaii for a great year!

UG's overall team speed and size was just too much for the Warriors. IMO, the defense played good enough for the most part, except being unable to stop the run early, they did better later in the game.

UG defense just dominated/overwhelmed the UH O-Line and beat Colt down pretty good. The UG front seven was very quick and relentless. The UH offense could not put anything together.

It's too bad UH couldn't make a better showing on the BCS stage, but they played hard and kept fighting until the end...

Hopefully, the UH administration REINVESTS some of the money the team has earned back into the program to build upon this season.

Early NFL Playoffs Updated Posted

2007-12-30T23:43:00.000-10:00

Early predictions and stats posted.

Good Luck!

UH arrives in New Orleans

2007-12-27T08:47:00.000-10:00

The University of Hawaii has arrived in New Orleans for the AllState Sugar Bowl 2007.

Last I heard they are +7.5 vs Georgia.

I think one of the keys to the game will be if QB Colt Brennan can get time in the pocket to hit his receivers and does not have an "off" game. If he can get time, UH should be able to take advantage of the Georgia defensive backfield.

On the defensive side, UH will have to control the UG running game. It could be a long game if UG is able to get off and run over the UH defense.

Anyway, Good Luck to the Warriors and BELIEVE!

Week 17 Early Updated Posted

2007-12-24T22:58:00.000-10:00

Stats and predictions updated. Merry Christmas one and all!

Good Luck!

Week 16 Final Update Posted

2007-12-20T17:35:00.000-10:00

Final updates for the week have been posted.

Good Luck!

NFL Predictor Week 15 Early Update

2007-12-10T22:39:00.000-10:00

Stats and predictions posted.

Sorry about the bad week (5-11 ATS) after a slight turnaround the past 2 weeks (10-6, 10-6) before that...

Good Luck!

NFL Week 14 Final Posted

2007-12-06T23:14:00.001-10:00

Final prediction updates posted. Good Luck!

Also, good luck to UH QB Colt Brennan as he takes off this weekend's Heisman Trophy ceremony.

NFL Predictor Week 14 Early Update

2007-12-03T23:06:00.001-10:00

Early updates posted for stats and predictions.

Recapping this past week got us another 10-6 record ATS.

Good Luck!

Best BS of the Week

2007-12-03T05:05:00.000-10:00

From LSU, stating that they are "undefeated in regulation this season". Undefeated in regulation?!?

That's a good one... :-)

UH is the only undefeated team in the BCS. They are undefeated in regulation, in overtime, and in the whole darn game.

UH vs Georgia in the Sugar Bowl!

2007-12-02T16:05:00.000-10:00

Zowie! What a game last night!

Talk about a nightmare way to start out a game AT HOME?!? Quick turnovers and short field scores by Washington gave them a 21-0 head start. UH's defense looked like they couldn't stop the UW running back and the O-line was allowing defenders to get all over Colt...

But, somehow, UH stopped UW when they had to and the O-line settled down and gave Colt enough time for the UH to get some scores and go in the half only down by 7 at 28-21.

In the 2nd half, the UH defense shutout UW and UH was able get 14 unanswered scores to pull ahead 35-28.

In the end, it came down to the defense making a clutch/amazing play to prevent UW from scoring the tying score from inside the 5 yd line. Unbelieve-ably UW got down to the goalline on two long passes.